IPOB agitation will douse if a Southeasterner becomes president of Nigeria in 2023 – Obaze

Mr. Henry Oseloka Obaze, a former Secretary to the Anambra State Government (SSG), and retired Senior official at the United Nations (UN), is a public policy expert. In this interview with Okechukwu Obenta, he speaks on a wide range of issues, including the view that emergence of a Southeasterner as President in 2023 will dampen the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)’s agitation; and other critical national issues.

The confidence of the people is very critical for any government to succeed. In this respect, what major steps would you advise Professor Chukwuma Soludo as Governor of Anambra State?

Professor Soludo is an accomplished technocrat and statesman. He has governed the Central Bank of Nigeria, but, governing the Central Bank is not governing a state. The state is made up of the masses, special interests, opposition and the elite. Good governance is about service delivery, and, service delivery doesn’t discriminate. He must find a way to carry along the various constituencies –the people that voted for him, the people that did not vote for him, his opposition, the elite cluster, the masses, his party and other parties, and, then the non-indigenes that live in Anambra State, whom he must also govern (he must find a way to carry them along). Leadership is about followership. If you are a Governor and nobody is following you, you are on your own. And the people that need to follow you do not necessarily need to be your party members only. The best form of governance is bi-partisanship where you carry everybody along. The best form of governance among your core staff is a team of rivals –people who are loyalists and people who are your opponents – who in a room can argue “You can’t do it this way, you can do it this way”. If you have a corps of ‘yes’ men, that is a road to failure.

What is your view concerning his policy requesting people who are interested in serving in political positions in his administration to apply?

It is novel and I compliment him for doing that. There is something he says I saw like a play. He says “If I rely on only people I know, it will be like twenty percent of people of Anambra constituency, so I need to get people of Anambra that are broad, both home and in the Diaspora”. I think that is a novelty; it is a welcome approach. But how to harmonise it and tap into that resource is something we are yet to see. I am sure what he conceptualised is unique and it will serve him well.

What particular mistakes or pitfalls of his immediate predecessor, the Obiano administration, would you advise Soludo to avoid?

He might not like what I have to say, but, I will say it because I have said it before. I am not a sycophant and he (Soludo) is my friend and I hope he considers me a friend (too), but I think he missed the mark in 2017 when Anambra was badly eroded and he gave a speech, and, said “If it’s not broken, why fix it?”

So, if Anambra is not broken, I hope he is inheriting a state that is not broken, a state that is not broken physically, not broken in terms of infrastructure, not broken in terms of morality, ethics and diligence governance. If that is the case, then no problem, he can continue on the path of the Obiano administration and then we’ll see how far he goes. But I know that he is coming with his own mind-set, his own style, his own set of people, I hope, I sincerely hope that he will not have bodies running around and lying around all over the place who hold titles, but, they don’t have job descriptions. I hope that he will focus on reducing the cost of governance in Anambra State which was quite unwielding under Governor Obiano. But be that as it may, he is the Governor, we will watch him, we will support him in any way we can, and, we hope that he will turn Anambra State around.

Are there challenges? Yes, there are challenges in infrastructure, there are challenges in soft power approaches, there are challenges in hard power approaches, security regime has to be maintained, collection of IGR (Internally Generated Revenue) in proper way and manner (not touts harassing people), that is not how it is done and he has to plug all the leakages because there is enormous amount of leakages in the revenue generation, and, then there has to be accountability and transparency, and, that aspect I don’t think I have anything to worry about him, he ran the Central Bank of Nigeria, so he knows what is required.

Ahead of the coming 2023 general election, some stakeholders have argued that the choice the next President should be based on the country’s unwritten rotational arrangement, and in that consideration,that the Southern zone of the country should be allowed to produce the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor because he is from the North, but, some others argue that the person can be elected from any zone of the country so long as the person has the capacity to govern the country very well. What is your own view?

Ordinarily, it shouldn’t matter who becomes President, which ever part of the country the person comes from, so long as you govern and you deliver equitably, fairly. But in our constitution, we have federal character principles which guarantees and underwrites equity and fair distribution of power sharing and resources. And by implication, we have a zoning principle which every zone of this country has produced a President except the Southeast.

So, those that argue that it is the turn of the Southeast are correct and I support that notion. If in the (past) 62 years, we have allowed other people to rule and they have done so well, or so badly, we should also give the Southeast the opportunity to either do so well or so badly. If somebody from the Southeast makes the difference and turns the country around, so be it. If we follow the modality and the pattern, the trajectory of those who governed and the country is still in the morass (the rot that it finds itself), so be it. But at least if we fail, let us fail; if we pass let us pass together. Equity, peace and justice demand that Southeast should be allowed to produce the next President in 2023.

But due to the exigencies of politics we recognize also that that might not happen because we have to negotiate power to arrive at this rotational unwritten principle. If that is the case, and it turns out to be somebody other than somebody from the Southeast, that also has to be negotiated because there ought to be clearly something for the Southeast in it that will allow them say, “Yes, we can go along with this, if not now, maybe later.”

Some people are expressing the view that the people of the Southeast zone are not doing enough to win the presidency. What is your take on this?

They are. And the critical focus underlying all those things is the agitation of some elements in the Southeast that they want to leave Nigeria because they are not being treated fairly. That critical elements are represented by the IPOB (Indigenous People of Biafra). They are not even interested in whether you give Presidency or not, they said, “ We want to be out!” So, it is left for the rest of Nigeria to decide whether they want the agitators to get their way and leave Nigeria or give the Southeast the Presidency and stay in Nigeria.

Those are the critical issues that need to be addressed. You can’t stay away from it; it is a reality. You can’t say, you don’t want me, you don’t want to give me what I am entitled to constitutionally, and, say I am part of you. It is either you give me what I am entitled to even though power is not given, but, it is rotational.We have a precedent.

In 1998, following the annulment of the 1993 elections, we knew the Southwest needed to be assuaged because of what happened to Chief M. K. O. Abiola and when it time came in 1998, we returned to democracy, all the two major political parties agreed to field candidates from the Southwest. We can follow that unwritten tradition, and, say ok, let’s allow the major political parties to field candidates from the Southeast whichever party that wins, whether it is APC, PDP, PRP or APGA, or a new mega-party you guarantee that whoever emerges comes from the Southeast.

It is a matter of four or eight years, if the person rules well, you can say, yes, you made the right decision; if the person does not rule well, you say well, it is a business as usual, let’s wait for another four years to vote him out or another eight years to vote him out. But at least you keep the country as a whole, and, that’s the way I see it. But as you know, politics is about who is inside in the corridors or who is outside.

Do you think that if the Southeast is allowed to produce the President in 2023, the gesture will stop IPOB agitation?

It might not be killed totally, but it will be assuaged, it will be dampened. Our people have a saying, “You don’t go chasing rat when your house is burning.” If it happens that a Southeasterner becomes a President, I think the elements of IPOB and elements of the agitations will tamper down their request to see how their son or daughter does as President. To be agitating continuously will undermine that person and it will give credence to what other people will say, “This people never wanted to be part of Nigeria. Now we have given them President, they are still agitating.” So, I think it will tamper agitation.

What is your reaction to your party, PDP’s stance not to zone its Presidential ticket to any particular zone of the country?

Well, that relates to what you said earlier that power is never given. They also want to be sure that what becomes a reality is negotiated not to the disadvantage of the other stakeholders in the party in the North, the Southwest and other what none, and, there is other strategic component to it. If you are a Southeastern candidate and you rely solely on the Southeast to vote for you, even if you win the whole votes in the five Southeast states; if you win the entire South which is Southeast, Southwest and South South you still don’t have the spread to win the presidency. So to have the spread, you need to win your core origin (Southeast), you need to win a commensurate number of South South, Southwest votes, and, at least a handful of the North-Central, North-West and North-East votes. And that basically is what is at play.

So everybody has a leverage on what they are bringing to the table. And posturing that they are not zoning, they want to leave their option open that at the end of the day – give or take – the interest of the party is that they take power from the APC whether they do it with the Sourth-Westerner, whether they do it with a Northern candidate. The ultimate goal to win power in 2023 will be based on which candidate that will allow the party to get the votes to win.

APC has made it clear that it has zoned its presidential ticket to the Southern zone in line with the adopted rotational principle. Don’t you think that the decision will give APC an edge over your party, PDP, in the 2023 general election, considering that majority view in the country is that the presidency should rotate to the South?

APC can afford to do that because they are the ruling power –the incumbent. PDP is cut in between the rock and the hard place considering that they have lost some governors to the APC and had some defections and all that. So, the strategy to carry everybody along has not let the party conclude on that. Don’t forget that until recently when PDP had a convention that brought Senator Iyorchia Ayu as chairman, they also had a leadership crisis, so all those things are evolving and over time with more consultations they will arrive at what will be imperative for the party to win power back. You don’t just zone for the sake of zoning, on sentiments; you zone to win office.

Since after your outing as the Peoples Democratic Party candidate in 2017 Anambra State governorship election, you appear to have been discouraged from further coming out to contest any election.

That’s incorrect. I ran in 2013 (for Governorship), I campaigned for the governorship to come to the North senatorial zone under the platform of APGA, we succeeded –it came to the North, and, one of us from the North, Governor Willie Obiano assumed power. When he started governing in his first two years,  I saw there was no continuity and the ground plan of his governance wasn’t something I could subscribe to so I left his government.

In 2017, to maintain that continuity – that governance should stay in the North Senatorial zone, I decided to run under the platform of the PDP. I had a meeting with the Governor (Willie Obiano) and told him that I was going to run. I did not just wake up to go and run, I had a meeting with him one-on-one and told him, “You are from the North, I am from the North with you. With the pattern of your governance you might be a one-term governor, and, if that happens, leadership of the state might shift to the Central or the South (senatorial zones), which means we won’t have full eight years for the North. So, see what is going to happen, you run for second term, I will run for the governor with the commitment that if I win, I will serve for only four years so that power will go to the South Senatorial zone unwritten as it were”.

And that’s where we left it. We campaigned hard, we had an election, they called the result, they said he (Obiano) won which I don’t believe, but, for the sake of continuity for the North, I congratulated him, and, moved on. On the 17th of March (2022), he would have finished eight years of the North. When it was time for the (November 6) 2021 governorship election, people came to me and said I should run, I said no. My commitment is to zoning. It is the turn of the South Senatorial zoneand every aspirant and candidate I supported eventually is from the South. And as it turned out,

the governor that emerged is from the South, even though he is not from my own party. So that rotational principle has been respected as far as I’m concerned. It will be counterproductive for me to say I support zoning and then run. So, I am not shying away from it. When it is the turn of the North again, I will find out who is the most capable person to support to run. So, I am not resigned, it is the reality of the day.

What is your ambition in the coming 2023 general election, because, it is obvious that many people in your North Senatorial zone will mount pressure on you to contest for the senatorial seat.

That opportunity is on the table. There are also other capable people from the North who are younger, good politicians, including myself who should also be able to represent the North senatorial zone. But you should know that in 2019,when the election was on, we had an incumbent senator who is not only from the North but from my local government, Senator Stella Oduah. When we get to that point, the will of the people will prevail.

You are a very close political ally of the Vice-presidential candidate of the PDP in 2019, former Governor Peter Obi. Pressure from various segments of the people across the country is being mounted on him to join the race for the presidency in 2023 general election. What is your own opinion?

First and foremost, he is eminently qualified to run for the Presidency of Nigeria. And in the Southeast there are many, many more others who are qualified. If you start from Anambra, Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states, you will find people who are pre-eminently qualified to be president of Nigeria. Peter Obi is just one of them. He happens to come from Anambra, he happens to be my boss, he happens to be a member of my party, the PDP.

As you might be aware, after we went to Enugu to have a meeting, we had a stakeholders meeting here in Awka, and, at that meeting, the Anambra State PDP expanded caucus endorsed him and told him to run for that office, andoffered to pay for his nomination form. I think that is a clarion call, there is nothing stronger, if he was in doubt whether people wanted him to run, he should not be in doubt anymore. I expect him to run, I urge him to run, I support him to run because he is qualified as any other person.