World likely to hit 1.5 °C rise in 5 years, UN warns
UN weather agency, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns it is likely that annual average global temperature will rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in at least one of the next five years.
WMO, in a new report published on Thursday, said there was a 40 per cent chance of the watershed global warming mark being met during the time frame, and these odds are increasing with time.
The 1.5°C mark was established as the desirable target for all the countries of the world who signed up to the Paris Agreement to limit temperature rises, in order to prevent permanent changes that threaten the wellbeing of all lives on earth.
The agreement calls for limiting rises to 2°C or below.
WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Petteri Taalas, said, “These are more than just statistics.
“Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
“It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.”
According to him, technological advances now make it possible to track greenhouse gas emissions back to their sources as a means of precisely targeting reduction efforts.
He said the report also underlined the need for climate adaptation.
“Only half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art early warning services.
“Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors – such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy – and promote early warning systems that reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events,” he said.
In addition, he said besides limitations in early warning services, there were severe gaps in weather observations, especially in Africa and island states.
“This has a major negative impact on the accuracy in the early warnings in those areas and globally. We need to invest in the basic networks as well,” he said.
In 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April.
It highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.
The report confirms that trend and in the coming five years, the annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer – within the range 0.9°C – 1.8°C – than preindustrial levels.
The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C has roughly doubled compared to last year’s predictions.
This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators. (NAN)
