Carbon neutrality: Is Nigeria on course?

Carbon neutrality is another climate-related goal that only a negligible number of people, especially in Nigeria, are aware of.

This reality, which raises concern about the amount of awareness that has been created around the whole issue of climate change in the country, constitutes a drawback for the realisation of this tall order by the year 2060.

Carbon neutrality is “the balance between carbon emissions and the absorption of carbon from the atmosphere by carbon sinks”.

Also referred to as net zero, carbon neutrality will be realised when the amount of carbon being added to the atmosphere is not more than the amount removed. However, carbon neutrality does not mean the complete elimination of greenhouse gas emissions.

While carbon neutrality and net zero are used interchangeably by politicians, businesses, scientists, and experts driving the climate conversation, probably because achieving net zero and carbon neutrality have the same end result (removing harmful emissions from the earth’s atmosphere), the scale and kind of emissions removed are different.

In June 2019, the United Kingdom emerged as the first major economy to pass legislation committing to net zero emissions by 2050.

It was at COP26 in 2021 that former President Muhammadu Buhari further committed Nigeria to net zero emissions by 2060, a commitment that was shortly backed by the Climate Change Act in November 2021.

The Act seeks to achieve low greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable growth by providing the framework to set a target to reach net zero. It also provides for the adoption of National Climate Change Action Plans, which will be implemented by the National Council on Climate Change, in five-year cycles.

A pilot Action Plan should have been adopted by November 2022. But, as of May 2023, no plan has yet been presented.

The Action Plans are aimed at ensuring that national emissions are consistent with a carbon budget, while the carbon budgets are to be set by the federal ministries responsible for the environment and national planning and are subject to periodic review.

Also, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan was released in August 2022 as the pathway towards achieving the 2060 net zero target. Sadly, Nigeria missed the initial deadlines set in the Act as the pilot Action Plan and first carbon budget, which was supposed to be published by November 2022, failed because the Council’s Director General, expected to drive implementation of the Act, was only appointed in July 2022, while former President Buhari only approved its work plan in February 2023

The legislation also mandates the federal ministries of Environment and National Planning to set a 1.5°C consistent carbon budget, while the country works on developing its long-term strategy (LTS). Nigeria also released its Energy Transition Plan in August 2022. This is its pathway towards achieving the 2060 net zero target.

Consequently, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) recognised the country’s ambitious 2030 renewable energy target, which it noted is being slowly implemented and is not likely to meet its target. Seven years after the deadline, the country has one of the least reliable electricity grids in the world, as Nigerians still spend billions of naira per year on generators.

Nigeria is rated by CAT as “fair,” which means that, like the majority of African nations, it will require significant international assistance to decarbonize its economy.

Also, its climate targets and policies are rated as “Almost sufficient” in that its climate commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be with moderate improvements. Nigeria updated its Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC targets in July 2021 with strong targets. But, it now needs to focus on implementing the policies to achieve these targets, for which again, international support is strongly needed.

In a nutshell, reaching net zero deserves much more than Nigeria has offered. Efforts must rather be geared towards cutting emissions from homes, transport, agriculture and industry into the atmosphere. This means that ‘residual’ emissions must be removed from the atmosphere, either by modifying land usage to enable it to absorb more carbon dioxide, or by extracting it directly through technologies known as Carbon Capture, Usage, And Storage, CCUS.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes in its global warming of 1.5 °C report that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 isn’t possible without ambitious mitigation actions that could include large-scale deployment of CO2 removal technologies like CCUS.

However, achieving net zero in certain areas, like aviation, has been described as too complex or expensive.

While rapid and far-reaching transitions are needed in all key components of the economic system—energy, industry, buildings, transport, land use, etc.—to attain carbon neutrality, political will remains sacrosanct, while lifestyle modification is also strongly solicited to reduce personal carbon footprint.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) submits that if other countries follow the UK’s lead and reach net zero emissions by 2050, the target will be reached using ‘currently known’ technologies. However, clear and consistent policies aimed at reducing emissions are needed.

United Nations Climate Action says healthy aquatic ecosystems and improved water management can lower greenhouse gas emissions and provide protection against climate hazards, while the United Nations Environmental Programme, UNEP, notes that wetlands such as mangroves, seagrasses, marshes, and swamps are highly effective carbon sinks that absorb and store CO2, helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To reach net zero, emissions from homes, transport, agriculture and industry must be cut. In other words, these sectors will have to reduce the amount of carbon they put into the atmosphere. But in some areas, like aviation, it will be too complex or expensive to cut emissions altogether.

A lot can be learned from the UK’s efforts towards carbon neutrality. The government has committed to phasing out the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 or at a later date. Emissions can equally be reduced by exploring alternative means of transportation. Using public transport instead of a car or choosing to walk or cycle is a safer option.

The UK has recently started investing in zero-emission buses and cycle infrastructure, while PM Boris Johnson also recently pledged to phase out new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. The country’s aviation industry is also working on ways to lower carbon emissions from flying. This is important for every country, including Nigeria.

At the 77th Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021, member airlines agreed to commit to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 in alignment with the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, noted in a statement that industry partners must play their part to achieve the target. “The cost and effort of breaking our industry’s dependence on fossil fuels cannot fall on the backs of airlines alone. We don’t have electric cars because drivers built them”.

“The energy transition for road transport is happening because governments created a policy framework that supported innovation. The market reacted by developing cost-efficient electrification solutions that appealed to consumers. The technology roadmap for sustainable aviation is more complex. But the mechanism to deliver change is the same.”

At this juncture, the Nigerian government is acknowledged for its efforts towards implementing all its commitments towards carbon neutrality.

In November 2022, the country announced rules to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, making it the first country in Africa to enact regulations to curb methane in the energy sector. In January 2023, the country adopted the Methane Guidelines, which include mandatory measures for oil and gas companies, such as leak detection.

But, much more than what has been done, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 compels every country to reduce emissions unrelated to energy consumption (agriculture and industrial processes), increase carbon sinks (natural and technological) to absorb residual incompressible emissions, and develop biomass production.

Nigeria, like all other developing economies, cannot achieve this alone. They need sustained assistance from developed countries to achieve it. FSD Africa Investments, in partnership with InfraCredit, (an established player in the sustainable infrastructure financing space), recently announced an investment of £10 million into a first-of-its-kind risk-sharing backstop facility designed to unlock local currency funding for sustainable infrastructure development in Nigeria.

It is believed that increased accessibility to finance for climate-aligned infrastructure projects will help Nigeria accelerate social and economic development, green economic transition, as well as deliver on climate goals.

Nigeria must, as a matter of responsibility, demonstrate greater commitments to all the obligations it has signed on to brighten the chances of hitting its 2060 net zero target. The Federal Government will need to continue to provide leadership in this regard. No stone must be left unturned in ensuring that we do not get to the tipping points.

While the cost of reaching net zero is huge, the cost of failure is even greater and more devastating.